DRAFT AGENDA [03-03-10]

USGS Climate Change Science: Understanding the Past, Informing Decisions for the Future
Sheraton Downtown Denver Hotel
March 9 - March 11, 2010
Denver, Colorado

**Monday, March 8**
Time	Location	Session / Activity
4:00 - 9:00 pm	South Convention Lobby	Early Registration and poster drop off

**Tuesday, March 9**
Time	Location	Topic	Speaker(s)
7:00 - 8:30 am	South Convention Lobby	Registration and poster drop off
8:30 -11:45 am	Grand Ballroom	Welcoming Plenary Session
Setting the Stage: The Climate Change Arena – Virginia Burkett, moderator
8:30 – 8:35 am	Grand Ballroom	Local Welcome: Welcome to Denver and CR	Stan Ponce – Central Region Director
8:35 - 8:45 am		Bureau & Program Welcome: Welcome and Purpose of the meeting – Introduce Christopher Field	Suzette M. Kimball USGS Deputy Director
8:45 - 9:15 am		The International View: IPCC: organization, procedures for assessments, requirements for scientific literature, and focus of AR5	Christopher Field – Co-chair IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability)
9:15 - 9:45 am	Coffee Break
9:45 – 10:15 am	Grand Ballroom	The National View: USGCRP and the next National Assessment	Shere Abbott and Kathy Jacobs Office of Science & Technology Policy
10:15 – 11:00 am		The USGS View: USGS Global Change Science – vision for the future and meeting the challenge. Overview of USGS Global Change Science Program accomplishments. Challenge to scientists, moving forward, participating in the science planning process	Suzette M. Kimball USGS Deputy Director
11:00 – 11:15 am		The DOI View: DOI’s role in climate science, the priority of climate in DOI, Secretarial Order 3289	David J. Hayes – Recorded Presentation Deputy Secretary of the Interior
11:15 – 11:45 am		Connections: USGS and DOI : LCCs, CSCs, and implementation within DOI and the USGS	Kit Batten Science Advisor to the Deputy Secretary of the Interior
11:45 am – 1:00 pm	Lunch – on your own
Climate Change and DOI: Meeting the Challenge – Ione Taylor, moderator
1:00 – 1:30 pm	Grand Ballroom	Planning USGS Global Change Science: USGS Global Change Science Strategic Planning – Process and Status – Also, join us Wednesday evening for listening session	Ione Taylor & Virginia Burkett Leads, USGS Global Change Science Planning
1:30 – 2:15 pm	Grand Ballroom	Panel discussion: Implementation plans across USGS Global Change and related programs	Douglas Beard National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center Peter Murdoch USGS Global Change Program (GCP), Climate Effects Network Rick Sojda USGS GCP, Science Applications and Decision Support Patricia Jellison USGS GCP, Research and Development
2:15 – 2:45 pm	Coffee Break
2:45 – 4:45 pm	Grand Ballroom	DOI Partners Speak: Global change response activities (LCCs & CSCs); science needs; interaction with USGS)	John Gross – National Park Service Kurt Johnson – U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service John Vitello – Bureau of Indian Affairs Dan Lechefsky – Bureau of Land Management Curt Brown and Avra Morgan – Bureau of Reclamation Mary Boatman – Minerals Management Service Ben Simon – DOI-Office of Policy Analysis
4:45 – 5:15 pm	Grand Ballroom	Partners Speak: Coordinating NOAA Regional Climate Science Delivery with USGS global change activities	Dan Walker – NOAA
5:15 – 7:00 pm	South Convention Lobby	*Poster Session and Welcoming Reception with appetizers and beverages*
7:00 – 8:00 pm	Grand Ballroom	DOI Global Change Town Hall – Opportunity to discuss DOI’s vision – open to all attendees	Tom Armstrong

Wednesday, March 10

Time

Location

Topic

Speaker(s)

8:00 - 10:00 am

Grand Ballroom

Moderators from USGS-GC Science Advisory Council and Conference Planning Committee

**Focus Area 1:** *Paleo-reconstructions of climate change and ecological responses – Moderator – Deb Willard*
Time	Authors - Speaker (in bold)	Title
8:00 – 8:15 am	Lesleigh Anderson	Alaska and northeast Pacific paleoclimate: the last century within the context of previous millennia and the Holocene
8:15 – 8:30 am	John Barron, Scott Starratt, David Bukry, David Wahl, Mary McGann, Elmira Wan, Lesleigh Anderson, Walt Dean	Pacific Ocean influence on the climate of western North America: Lessons from the Holocene paleoclimate record
8:30 – 8:45 am	Richard Z. Poore and Julie N. Richey	Low-latitude sea-surface temperature variability over the last 1,200 years.
8:45 – 9:00 am	Daniel R. Muhs, Kathleen R. Simmons, R. Randall Schumann, Robert B. Halley	The last interglacial period as an analog for a future warm climate: New evidence from southern Florida
9:00 – 9:15 am	Debra A. Willard, Christopher E. Bernhardt	Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Long-Term Paleoecological Experiments
9:15 – 9:30 am	Robert S. Thompson, Lesleigh Anderson, Paul E. Carrara, Richard T. Pelltier, Joseph G. Rosenbaum, Joseph P. Smoot, Laura E. Strickland	Past climatic and environmental changes in the Upper Colorado River Basin region
9:30 – 9:45 am	J.W. Harden, K.D. Johnson, C.R. Lawrence, K.L. Manies, A.D. McGuire, J.A. O'Donnel, M.P. Waldrop	Carbon in Terrestrial Landscapes: Is the Past a Key to the Future?
9:45 – 10:00 am	Thomas M. Cronin	Climate Challenges, the Geologic Record and the USGS

10:00 – 10:30 am

Coffee Break

10:30 – 11:30 am

Grand Ballroom

**Focus Area 1 – Continued**
Time	Authors - Speaker (in bold)	Title
10:30 – 10:45 am	Harry Dowsett, Marci Robinson, Kevin Foley, Alan Haywood, Dan Lunt, Danielle Stoll, Karine Renaud	Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM): Analysis of past global warming as an aid in understanding future climate change
10:45 – 11:00 am	Thomas Ager	Late Cenozoic climate changes and vegetation responses in Alaska inferred from pollen evidence: Examples from the Miocene, Pliocene, and Quaternary
11:00 – 11:15 am	Marith Reheis, Dave Miller	Paleoclimate records and landscape response, Mojave Desert, California
11:15 – 11:30 am	Discussion and Q&A for Focus Area 1

11:30 am – 12:30 pm

Lunch – On your own

12:00 – 12:30 pm

Tower Court B

Lunch-time information session for those interested in Geography’s Essential Climate Variables initiative – John Dwyer – open meeting

12:30 – 2:30 pm

Grand Ballroom

**Focus Area 2.** *Global change effects on ecosystems and linkages among water, soils, biota, and land use – Moderator – Jill Baron*
Time	Speaker (in bold)	Title
12:30 – 12:45 pm	J. Baron, D.L. Peterson, D. Fagre, C. Allen, N. Stephenson, D. McKenzie, J. Hicke, C. Tague, D. Ojima, A. Fountain	Western Mountain Initiative: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Western Mountain Ecosystems
12:45 – 1:00 pm	Craig D. Allen, Nathan L. Stephenson, Alison K. Macalady, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Adrian J. Das, Christina Tague, Nate G. McDowell, Jeffrey A. Hicke, E.H. (Ted) Hogg, David D. Breshears, Don McKenzie, Jill S. Baron, Daniel B. Fagre, Andrew G. Fountain, Dennis S. Ojima, David L. Peterson	Drought and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality: The Western US within a Global Context of Emerging Climate Change Risks for Forests
1:00 – 1:15 pm	Margaret Hiza Redsteer, Debra Block, Rian Bogle, Amy Draut, Barry Middleton, John Vogel, Miguel Velasco	Climate change impacts and research on the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States
1:15 – 1:30 pm	Michelle Walvoord, Robert Striegl, George Aiken, Mark Dornblaser, Stephanie Ewing, Brad Griffith, Joshua Koch, Joel Schmutz, Paul Schuster, Richard L. Smith, Clifford Voss, Kimberly Wickland	Climate change and water in interior Alaska: An overview of hydrologic, aquatic biogeochemical, and biodiversity studies in the Yukon River Basin
1:30 – 1:45 pm	Gary Clow and Frank Urban	DOI Climate- and Environmental-Monitoring Networks in Arctic Alaska DOI/Global Terrestrial Network – Permafrost (DOI/GTN-P)
1:45 – 2:00 pm	Gordon Tribble, Maoya Bassiouni, Henry Diaz, Tom Giambelluca, Jim Jacobi, Oliver Elison Timm, Delwyn Oki, Jonathan Price, Nancy Prouty	Climate Change Effects on Terrestrial Ecosystems and Water Resources in Hawaii
2:00 – 2:15 pm	Sonya Jones	Overview of the Southeastern Region Assessment Project of the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center
2:15 – 2:30 pm	Jake F. Weltzin and the USA-NPN Development Team	Taking the Pulse of Our Planet: Phenology as a tool for science, management and education in a changing environment

2:30 – 3:00 pm

Coffee Break

3:00 – 5:00 pm

Grand Ballroom

**Focus Area 2 – Continued**
Time	Speaker (in bold)	Title
3:00 – 3:15 pm	Michael Dettinger, Daniel Cayan, Noah Knowles, Tapash Das	Changing timing of the onset of spring in western North America – An update
3:15 – 3:30 pm	David W. Clow, Mark W. Williams, George P. Ingersoll	Influence of windblown dust on snowmelt timing in the Rocky Mountains, USA
3:30 – 3:45 pm	Shuguang Liu, Zhengpeng Li, Zhengxi Tan, and Claudia J. Young	Annual ecosystem carbon fluxes and soil carbon budgets between 2000 and 2008 in the North American Carbon Program (NACP) Mid-Continent Intensive Campaign Region
3:45 – 4:00 pm	Ken W. Krauss, Julie L. Whitbeck, William H. Conner, Thomas W. Doyle	Defining controls over soil greenhouse gas effluxes as tidal freshwater forested wetlands transition to marsh
4:00 – 4:15 pm	J.B. Grace, J.A. Cherry, K.L. McKee	The importance of biological processes to forecasting coastal marsh vulnerability to climate change
4:15 – 4:30 pm	G.R. Guntenspergen	The resilience of wetland ecosystems to climate change
4:30 – 4:45 pm	Ryan P. Moyer, Bärbel Hönisch, Kevin P. Helmle, Kimberly K. Yates, Christopher M. DuFore, Nathan A. Smiley	Coral-based records of boron isotopes and skeletal density: Useful proxies of anthropogenic ocean acidification?
4:45 – 5:00 pm	Discussion and Q&A for Focus Area 2

5:00 – 7:00 pm

South Convention Lobby

Poster Session and Reception with appetizers, and beverages

7:00 – 8:00 pm

Grand Ballroom

USGS Science Planning Meeting with Global Change Program Science Planning Team – open to all attendees

Virginia Burkett &
Ione Taylor

Thursday, March 11

Time

Location

Topic

Speaker(s)

8:00–10:00 am

Grand Ballroom

**Focus Area 5:** *Research funded by USGS RFPs, Expanded Research Opportunities in Global Change Science – Moderator – Robin O’Malley*
Time	Authors - Speaker (in bold)	Title
8:00 – 8:15 am	Eric T. Sundquist	From carbon footprint to carbon pathway: The challenge of comprehensive carbon sequestration resource assessment
8:15 – 8:30 am	E. Robert Thieler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Nathaniel Plant, S. Jeffress Williams, Donald R. Cahoon, Dean Gesch, Glenn Guntenspergen, John Masterson	A probabilistic framework for evaluating sea-level rise impacts
8:30 – 8:45 am	John Takekawa, Karen Thorne, Kyle Spragens, David Schoellhamer, Judith Drexler, John Callaway, Michael Casazza, and Cory Overton	Evaluating the effects of projected sea-level rise on endemic tidal marsh species in San Francisco Bay estuary, an interdisciplinary approach
8:45 – 9:00 am	L.L. Robbins, I. Kuffner, P. Knorr, X. Liu, M. Hansen, C. Smith, R. Byrne, and E. Raabe	Monitoring Florida shelf carbonate saturation state and calcification rates: setting a baseline for response of ocean acidification on marine habitats
9:00 – 9:15 am	Andrew Todd, Jeff Kershner, Sue Cannon, Kurt Fausch, Amy Haak, Steve Hostetler, Bob Gresswell, Daniel Isaak, Clint Muhlfeld, Helen Neville, Doug Peterson, Seth Wenger, Jack Williams	The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of western native salmonids "at risk"
9:15 – 9:30 am	Robert W. Dudley, and Benjamin H. Letcher	Projected climate change impacts on water resources and Atlantic salmon population persistence for selected Gulf of Maine Rivers
9:30 – 9:45 am	Skagen, Susan K., Joseph J. Fontaine, Lucy Burris, and Diane A. Granfors	Climate change as a challenge to bird conservation in semi-arid regions of North America
9:45 – 10:00 am	Steven L. Markstrom and Lauren E. Hay	Overview of the 'Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change in selected basins across the United States' project

10:00 – 10:30 am

Coffee Break

10:30 am -12:00 pm

Grand Ballroom

**Focus Area 4:** *Modeling and projection of resource response to global change – Moderator – Steve Hostetler*
Time	Authors - Speaker (in bold)	Title
10:30 – 10:45 am	S. Hostetler, J. Alder, P. Bartlein, A. Schuetz, S. Shafer, R. Thompson, K. Izumi, P. Clark, and D. Pollard	Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America from 21 ka to 2100: Climate analysis, climate reconstruction and guidance for management decisions
10:45 – 11:00 am	Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock	Recent declines in western US snowpack in the context of 20th century climate variability
11:00 – 11:15 am	Clifford Voss, Jeffrey McKenzie, Michelle Walvoord	Impacts of ground ice and permafrost thaw on cold-regions hydrologic systems
11:15 – 11:30 am	John J. Vaccaro	Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater resources of the Columbia River Basin
11:30 – 11:45 am	Stohlgren T.J., C.S. Jarnevich, S. Kumar, D. Barnett, J. Morisette, and T. Holcombe.	Forecasting invasions with near-term climate change scenarios
11:45 am – 12:00 pm	James Cloern, Mike Dettinger, Dan Cayan, Noah Knowles, Larry Brown, David Schoellhamer, Tara Morgan, Mark Stacey, Wayne Wagner	How will California's large river system and estuary respond to a century of climate change?

12:00 – 12:15 pm

Grand Ballroom

Marcia McNutt, USGS Director

12:15 - 1:15 pm

Lunch – On your own

1:15 - 5:00 pm

Grand Ballroom

**Focus Area 3:** *Incorporating global change science into resource management decisions – Moderator – Joan Fitzpatrick*
Time	Authors - Speaker (in bold)	Title
1:15 – 1:30 pm	Graffy, Elisabeth A.	Lessons learned: Applying global change science to decision-making
1:30 – 1:45 pm	Brad Griffith, J. Michael Scott, Jill Baron	Climate change adaptation options for public lands and resources
1:45 – 2:00 pm	Alec Maule, Matthew Mesa, Jill Hardiman, James Hatten, Mark Mastin, Frank Voss, Jessica Montag, and Lynne Koontz	Effects of climate change on the hydrology & aquatic ecosystem of the Yakima River basin and associated social & economic considerations.
2:00 – 2:15 pm	R.B. Swanson, R. Zelt, J. Cannia, L. Tieszen, K. Espy, C. Allen	Designing a framework for integrated climate-change-effects assessment in the Greater Platte River Basins
2:15 – 2:30 pm	Sarah J. Converse, Conor P. McGowan, Michelle H. Reynolds, Brady J. Mattson, and James D. Nichols	Structured decision-making, adaptive management, and climate change adaptation
2:30 – 2:45 pm	James E. Lyons, Mark D. Koneff, James D. Nichols	Climate uncertainty and decision-making in natural resource management: Lessons from adaptive harvest management
2:45 – 3:00 pm	James Verdin, Roger Pulwarty	How NIDIS helps factor climate change into water resources management

3:00 - 3:30 pm

Coffee Break

3:30 – 5:00 pm

Grand Ballroom

**Focus Area 3 – Continued**
Time	Authors (Speaker in bold)	Title
3:30 – 3:45 pm	Paul Conrads, Edwin Roehl, Daniel Tufford, Greg Carbone, Kirstin Dow	Development of decision support systems for estimating salinity intrusion effects due to climate change on the South Carolina and Georgia Coast
3:45 – 4:00 pm	Robert M. Lent	Framework for a U. S. Geological Survey hydrologic climate-response program in Maine
4:00 – 4:15 pm	Zhiliang Zhu, Sarah Stackpoole	National Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment
4:15 – 4:30 pm	Joan J. Fitzpatrick. Colleen W. Charles, John P. McGeehin	Climate science for the policy sector - USGS contributions to the US Climate Change Science Program – Key Findings of Synthesis and Assessment Products 1.2, 3.4, and 4.2
4:30 – 4:45 pm	Chris Funk, James Verdin, James Rowland	Famine early warning to inform food aid decision making and climate change adaptation

4:45 – 5:15 pm

Grand Ballroom

Marcia McNutt, USGS Director, Conference Wrap-up