Focus Areas

Paleo-reconstructions | Effects on ecosystems | Science for management decisions | Modeling | Scientific Results

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The focus areas below were derived from discussions at the 2006 Global Change Conference in Denver and were integrated into the draft Global Change Science Strategy to address four broad objectives necessary to understand the processes controlling Earth system responses to global change. These objectives include:

• Improve understanding of climate change and variability, identify and describe the processes that affect natural systems, and distinguish natural from human-induced change
  
• Increase our knowledge of the critical sensitivities and interdependencies among land, water and biological resource responses to changes in climate, land use, and water use, particularly in highly sensitive environments
• Explore approaches for factoring climate change and variability into impact scenarios and resource management decision-making
• Develop numerical models that simulate natural resource response to global change

The final agenda for March 10-11 will depend upon the number of abstracts submitted prior to the conference from each focus area.

1. Paleo-reconstructions of climate change and ecological responses
2. Global change effects on ecosystems and linkages among water, soils, biota, and land use
3. Incorporating global change science into resource management decisions
4. Modeling and projection of resource response to global change
5. Results or status of projects funded through the Request for Proposals (RFP) process

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Focus Area 1: Paleo-reconstructions of climate change and ecological responses

USGS conducts research on Earth’s past climate variability to better understand, predict, and mitigate effects of future climate change due to human activity and natural variability. Paleoclimate studies provide empirical evidence for past climatic conditions significantly warmer and cooler than the present and can be used to evaluate predicted changes caused by greenhouse gas forcing and potential feedbacks between the climate system and the global carbon cycle. Examples of current USGS research that may be highlighted in this session(s) include:

1. spatial and temporal patterns, causes, and impacts of past climate changes
2. natural baseline levels of variability of key climate parameters such as ice sheets, sea ice, and rainfall, against which modern trends and predicted future changes can be assessed
3. equilibrium climate conditions (temperature, rainfall, sea level, ice volume) during past periods of elevated CO₂ concentrations and what they portend for future climate and carbon cycle feedbacks
4. how rapidly global and regional climate changes have occurred in the past
5. biotic responses to past climate changes; effects on ecosystem distribution and structure
6. proxy methods for establishing regional and global paleoclimate patterns and correlation tools to address contemporary issues in climate change

Focus Area 2: Global change effects on ecosystems and linkages among water, soils, biota, and land use

USGS is a well-established leader in conducting scientific assessments of the past and potential future impacts of global change on terrestrial, aquatic, marine and coastal ecosystems, and freshwater resources. By coordinating USGS hydrologic and biological monitoring networks with land cover/land use assessments and with ecosystem, landscape, and sediment dynamics research we can advance our understanding of linkages among climate and Earth surface processes. Presentations in the session(s) devoted to this focus area may address:

1. potential effects of climate change on the structure, function, connectivity, and sustainability of ecosystems
2. interactions among climate, ecosystems, soils, species, land use and land cover, particularly in environments that are most vulnerable to global change
3. effects on resources such as soil fertility and the quality and quantity of ground and surface water 
4. the potential effects of climate-induced environmental changes on ecosystem services that are essential for human populations
5. outcomes of interactions of land and water use with different climate scenarios in highly sensitive ecosystems
6. patterns and processes of carbon fluxes and storage and the potential for deliberate carbon sequestration
7. threshold-type responses in highly vulnerable ecosystems or species
8. climate change and its higher-order effects on biodiversity and species phenology, distribution, migration patterns and corridors, and migration rates

Focus Area 3: Incorporating global change science into resource management decisions

USGS works with collaborating agencies to: (1) prepare syntheses and assessments to support informed discussion of climate change and associated issues by decision makers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public;( 2) develop tools, technologies, and information services to support adaptive management and planning for responding to climate variability and climate change, and transition these resources from research to operational application in climate services and early warning systems; and (3) develop and evaluate methods (scenario evaluations, integrated analyses, and alternative analytical approaches) to support global change policymaking and demonstrate these methods with case studies. Research that will be highlighted in this session(s) includes:

1. simulation of climate, ecosystem, and land use change at spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to land management and policy decisions 
2. outcomes that may be anticipated from different management strategies for landscapes, ecosystems and natural resources in a changing climate
3. integrating climate change and variability into water infrastructure design, water allocation planning, and other activities that can help ameliorate the potential adverse effects of climate change on their stakeholders and their ability to meet legal mandates
4. evaluating land use and water use activities to inform mitigation decisions for those global change impacts already underway
5. land use and water use practices that should be avoided or changed to mitigate the global change impacts underway
6. current and future assessments of water scarcity and potential adaptation strategies for water resource managers

Focus Area 4: Modeling and projection of resource response to global change

Many critical questions about natural and societal responses to climate change can be answered only through modeling. The USGS has an extensive capacity to model the effects of climate change on land, water, biological, and coastal resources. Developing, applying, and validating these models to assist resource managers in evaluating potential resource management options will be a key niche for the USGS in the coming decade. Examples of current research that may be highlighted in this session(s) include:

1. approaches for maintaining and distributing climate-related data generated by the USGS and for providing standardization of data used within the USGS climate modeling community
2. statistical and dynamical downscaling of global climate models for purposes of assessing impacts on natural resources and for evaluating resource management alternatives
3. application of process-based ecosystem, habitat, population, biogeochemistry, and landscape models to project the potential availability and vulnerability of natural resources
4. new approaches for visualization of large data sets and model products
5. national and global systems modeling efforts that link specific processes (e.g., land surface – atmosphere linkages, ice – albedo feedbacks, permafrost processes, vegetation change linkages to land surface properties, landscape change, the global carbon cycle, and model-model intercomparisons)
6. coupling USGS hydrologic, ecosystems, and landscape models with climate models in the context of data assimilation frameworks and visualization

Focus Area 5: Results or status of projects funded through the Request for Proposals (RFP) process