10. Rapidly Assessing and Quantifying Earthquake Hazard and Impact
Immediately after a damaging earthquake the scope of the potential catastrophe is unknown. To assist the response of aid agencies, governments, and the media, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. PAGER distributes alerts and supporting web pages within 20 minutes for earthquakes occurring anywhere in the world. The alerts include the earthquake’s size and location, maps of ground shaking, and estimates of the population and cities exposed to damaging shaking.
The USGS originally developed PAGER as a post-earthquake response tool focusing on fatality estimation and broad situational awareness. However, since PAGER’s public release, additional demands have been placed on the system. Relief agencies have requested more content including estimates of homelessness, refined casualty estimation including non-fatal injuries, and the likelihood of triggered landslides, liquefaction, and tsunami. Financial institutions and corporations have expressed interest in rapid economic loss estimates. Additionally, scenario PAGER earthquake reports are used to promote earthquake hazard awareness, long-term mitigation, and support disaster response exercises.
Given these demands, there is a need for further scientific research and technical development to better constrain shaking intensity, refine loss methodologies, and provide content that is more easily used and understood by the disaster response community. The methodologies developed under this Research Opportunity will be implemented as part of the PAGER system in an open, scientifically reviewed, research and development environment.
The societal impact of an earthquake primarily depends on the distribution and intensity of shaking combined with the density, vulnerability, and resiliency of the exposed population. Within this context, many challenges exist to improve the accuracy and expand the content of PAGER post-earthquake loss estimates. We seek candidates willing to adapt and advance one or more aspects of our existing system. There are three primary areas of possible research foci:
- improving estimates of ground-shaking intensity;
- improving estimates of societal and/or economic loss estimation, or
- advancing loss methodologies for secondary hazards.
A successful candidate could be drawn from one of several fields including, global seismic hazard and risk analysis, structural engineering, economics, sociology, seismology, and disaster response.
Predicting earthquake impact requires accurate estimates of ground-shaking intensity. The USGS ShakeMap system currently provides estimates of ground shaking intensity in several regions of the United States where near-source ground motion observations are available. However, extending these capabilities to provide rapid estimates of shaking intensity on a global scale, when instrumental ground-motion observations are generally absent or very limited, requires creativity and seismological ingenuity. Better ground motion prediction, source characterization, and estimates of site response would greatly improve PAGER’s loss estimates.
To cite another PAGER need, given that shaking and loss estimates are uncertain, further research and development is needed to better determine societal impact (for example, casualties, homelessness) from existing population exposure and building inventories. Combined empirical and analytical loss models are required to improve and/or accommodate the different levels of loss data and knowledge of inventory around the world. Existing methodologies are either proprietary or are only partially applicable. For economic impact assessment, a wide range of economic indicators can be analyzed and considered for use, including rebuilding and recovery costs, and effects on GDP and per capita income. Secondary hazards also contribute to loss, including landslides, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire. Opportunities to improve existing loss methodologies for these secondary effects abound. PAGER can be found online at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/pager/, and background materials and references are available at that site or from the Research Advisors.
Proposed Duty Station: Golden, CO
Areas of Ph.D.: Geology, geophysics, seismology, civil engineering, sociology, epidemiology, computer science, or economics
Qualifications: Applicants must meet one of the following qualifications: Research Geophysicist, Research Geologist, Research Civil Engineer, Research Economist, Computer Scientist, Sociologist
(This type of research is performed by those who have backgrounds for the occupations stated above. However, other titles may be applicable depending on the applicant's background, education, and research proposal. The final classification of the position will be made by the Human Resources specialist.)
Research Advisor(s): DavidWald, (303) 273-8441, wald@usgs.gov; Paul Earle, (303) 273-8417, pearle@usgs.gov; Nicolas Luco (303) 273-8683, nluco@usgs.gov; Ross Stein, (650) 329-4840, rstein@usgs.gov
Human Resources Office contact: Vanessa Chambless, (303) 236-9584, vchambless@usgs.gov
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Summary of Opportunities |