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Earthquakes in Geologically Complex Media: Conditional Earthquake Probabilities for Southern California: Matt Gerstenberger
Project Title: Earthquakes in Geologically Complex Media: Conditional Earthquake Probabilities for Southern California
Mendenhall Fellow: Matt Gerstenberger, (626) 583-7238, mattg@usgs.gov
Duty Station: Pasadena, CA
Start Date: May 1, 2004
Education: Ph.D.(Geophysics),  ETH-Zurich, Switzerland, 2003
Research Advisors: Lucy Jones, (626) 583-7817, jones@usgs.gov; Ned Field,  (626) 583-7814,field@usgs.gov;  Sue Hough, (626) 583-7224, hough@usgs.gov
  Matt Gerstenberger

Project Description: The large population base and high earthquakehazard in southern California represent a considerable earthquake risk. Therefore it is crucial that hazard estimation procedures continually take advantage of the latest models and most recently available data   in order to best estimate this risk. Most current, established hazard mapping techniques can be considered time-independent. Maps are produced for a certain time period (e.g., 30 years) and do not change for this time period. However, due to changes that often occur on shorter time scales than the length of standard hazard maps (ie, increased local strain rate), what was previously thought to be the probability of a certain size event may now be increased or even
decreased. Therefore, hazard forecasts that take advantage of these changes on all times scales from days to years are vital to completing the foundation that is created by a standard hazard map. Currently a large effort is being put forth in the time-dependent hazard arena by the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Modeling (RELM, http://www.relm.org/) group of the Southern California Earthquake Center;. much my postdoc will be directed at this effort Research under this project will focus on three main goals related to the advancement of our
understanding of earthquake hazard in southern California: 1) the continued development of an existing statistically based method for short-term hazard forecasting; 2) incorporation of physically based contributions to the hazard model from geodetic strain rates and earthquake stress interactions; and 3) optimization of statistical validation techniques for testing earthquake forecasts.

Six snapshots of the Los Angeles region giving 24 hour forecast of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI as they would have appeared in the year following the 1994 M6.7 Northridge, California earthquak   Six snapshots of the Los Angeles region giving 24 hour forecast of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI as they would have appeared in the year following the 1994 M6.7 Northridge, California earthquake. The maps show the probability of a given area experiencing ground shaking at levels which would begin to frighten people or cause damag.e

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Last modified: 16:08:28 Thu 13 Dec 2012